Saturday Week 1 Handicaps
Photo Credit: CNN
2025 Record: (5-9) -3.53 Units
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What did we learn last night?
I can’t remember the last time we had a night without any wins. We must move forward. Okay, that is the last time I will be betting on Sam Houston. They are one of the worst teams in the country with an atrocious defense. I should’ve learned my lesson after Week 0.
The first thing I did this morning was take a few points off of Baylor. Dave Aranda is a poor football coach. He is ultra-aggressive and when it works, of course it’s great but it can also blow up in your face. Early in the game, Aranda passed up on kicking a FG from the 4-yard line after getting stuffed on three plays in a row. They turned the ball over on downs and Auburn proceeded to march the football down 96 yards for a touchdown and never lost momentum. Huge swing. Baylor also scored two touchdowns on fourth down. Those were probably necessary. There is talent on this team but the defense was unimpressive as Auburn had over 300 yards rushing. Jackson Arnold was impressive but I am still not a believer.
Colorado started the game against Georgia Tech forcing three turnovers but only came away with 7 points. That is unacceptable. Kaidon Salter showed flashes of his talent but he also had accuracy issues. He loves to throw on the run. The issue is, he misses his target most of the time. Multiple times he missed open WRs. The Buffs also lean heavily on the screen game. Colorado made a huge stop on third and long but it was called back due to a defensive holding call. GT went down the field and scored and never lost control of the game after that. Yes, the end of the game clock management was awful by Salter and the Colorado staff but the inability to cash in on turnovers killed the Buffaloes. Colorado has an offensive line and some talent but it looks like they need some time to mesh. Salter needs more big game experience at this level of competition. Georgia Tech hosts Clemson September 13th and we will find out soon if they are contenders or pretenders.
11:00AM CT: Syracuse Orangemen vs. Tennessee Volunteers -13.5; Total 52
This was one of my favorite plays of the day. I remember last year thinking that NC State had a chance to beat Tennessee, and the Volunteers proceeded to beat the living hell out of the Wolfpack. There was a massive difference in size, speed, and talent—three things that make a difference on the football field, aside from intelligence. I’m expecting the same type of performance from Tennessee today. This game will also be in Atlanta. Syracuse will have Steve Angeli at QB, who was heroic for about a 10-minute stretch for Notre Dame in last year’s Orange Bowl. The Orange lost a ton of talent from their 10-win team last year. I think they’ll take a step back this year while Tennessee takes a step forward. I rate QB Joey Aguilar much higher than Nico Iamaleava. Aguilar is a gunslinger. We just need to watch how he handles the step up in competition. I like the Vols big in this one.
Play: Tennessee -13.5 (-110) [via BetOnline]
11:00AM CT: Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes -1; Total 46.5
The main event kicks off early today! A rematch of last year’s National Championship (wink). The last time these two met during the regular season in Columbus, Vince Young and the eventual National Champions put on a show for the ages, with Limas Sweed catching a TD pass to win the game. Revenge is on the mind of the Texas Longhorns and head coach Steve Sarkisian. He had one of his worst offensive games against Ohio State. It feels like everyone is on the Longhorns. They have a veteran defense and the odds-on Heisman favorite in Arch Manning. How will the Buckeyes’ freshman quarterback fare against this defense? All the pressure is on Arch. This is going to be a great matchup to determine the best team in the country. I’m backing the Longhorns because of their defense and the revenge factor.
Play: Texas +1 (-115) [via BetOnline]
11:45AM CT: Toledo Rockets vs. Kentucky Wildcats -10; Total 49
As we posted earlier this summer (@cfegrind), it’s going to be a fade of Kentucky this year. The talent just isn’t there. Toledo, on the other hand, has the talent. This Rockets team is poised to make a run this season. With the losses of Boise State and Army already this season, it has left the door wide open for Non-Power 4 schools to slide into the CFP. It all starts with this game for Toledo. Don’t be surprised to see an upset in this one.
Play: Toledo +10 (-112) [via BetOnline]
2:30PM CT: Alabama Crimson Tide -14 vs. Florida State Seminoles; Total 49
Florida State continues to take the quick route to a winning program by bringing in transfers at QB instead of developing their own talent. It’s hurting them. FSU overhauled their entire team after their near-undefeated season and again after an embarrassing season last year. New coordinators and players at nearly every position. I’m not a fan of laying double digits on the road, but I have little faith in this ‘Noles team. Alabama will have a young quarterback, but he’ll have plenty of weapons at his disposal. Not only that, but the Tide will have one of the best defenses in the country. Will a transfer QB from Boston College, Tommy Castellanos, be enough? I think not. He has some talent, but he won’t be running around freely like he did in the ACC. Give me the nasty defense over a team full of transfers.
Play: Alabama -14 (-110) [via BetOnline]
5:00PM CT: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Virginia Cavaliers -13.5; Total 57
I grabbed this game when it was Virginia -12. Coastal will have a ton of new players, and they’ll need to step up against a strong Virginia team. Last year, the Cavaliers bullied the Chants at Coastal. I expect more of the same at home this time. There is a massive talent and size discrepancy. I have Virginia dominating, and I’m not afraid of the two-touchdown spread.
Play: Virginia -13.5 (-115) [via BetOnline]
6:30PM CT: LSU Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers -4; Total 56.5
People were eating up the hook with LSU when it was +3.5, until they weren’t. I don’t understand the love for LSU and the “genius” Brian Kelly. I also don’t believe in QB Garrett Nussmeier. Clemson has one of the best quarterbacks and rosters in the country on paper. Tonight, we’ll see if they’re the real deal or not. I think they’ll dominate the LSU offensive line. All the weapons in the world won’t help LSU if they can’t get the ball. The battle of Death Valley. Clemson has a huge game to start the season behind QB Cade Klubnik. This will likely close with a hook at either 3.5 or 4.5 to entice people to bet LSU. I’m not buying it.
Play: Clemson -4 (-111) [via BetOnline]
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