NFL Divisional Round Saturday
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host the Jacksonville Jaguars in their hunt for a 2nd Super Bowl ring.
We’ve made it to week two of the playoffs - the NFL Divisional Round. Our first matchup is a rematch from earlier in the year where the Chiefs welcome the Jaguars to Arrowhead Stadium. In the second game, The #1 seed Philadelphia Eagles host division rival the New York Giants. A strong slate so let’s get after it!
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-9); total 53; 3:30pm ct
Our first game is a rematch from earlier in the year: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Chiefs are off of the #1 seed bye week and will be ready for Cinderella in her pumpkin to roll into Arrowhead Stadium. Jaguars are coming off an improbable comeback against the Chargers. For this handicap let’s start at the matchup from earlier in the year. Weather is showing possible showers and less than 40 degrees so keep an eye on that.
Jaguars started off the game with an onside kick and then immediately punted the ball after 5 plays. Why punt if you were willing to kick an onside kick to start the game? That, I do not understand. A couple Jax missed FGs later and the Chiefs were up 20 points before the Jaguars got on the board. It was KC 20-7 at halftime. Right out of half Jacksonville went on a 9 minute drive but had to settle for a field goal. A little debilitating when you see Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs go on a 75 yard TD drive in 5 minutes. That basically sealed the game. Mahomes threw an interception around the 50 yard line and Jacksoville scored its second touchdown of the game. The game finished Chiefs 27 - Jaguars 17.
On the surface it looks like Jacksonville kept the game close but the devil is in the details. Jags ran 61 total plays and Chiefs ran 62 for reference. The Jaguars were 4/14 28% on 3rd down compared to the Chiefs 7/10 70%. Huge difference. Chiefs had 26(!) first downs compared to the Jaguars 17. KC was moving the ball at will on the Jacksonville defense averaging 7.8 yards per play. Chiefs had 331 passing yards and 155 rushing yards. They didn’t commit any penalties but had 3 turnovers to Jacksonville’s 0. Chiefs dominated while losing the turnover battle by a large margin.
Kansas City Chiefs HC Andy Reid is 22-13 63% (all-time) against the spread coming off a bye and 7-3 70% ATS off a playoff bye week. Going into this game you know you can trust Andy Reid and his staff to be prepared. The Jaguars are coming off of one of the largest playoff comebacks (27 points) in NFL history. In 2013, the Indianapolis Colts erased a 28 point deficit to defeat Andy Reid’s Chiefs but were blown out the next round against the Patriots 43-22. We may have the same situation play out in this game. Brewing in the caldron we have HC Andy Reid and his experience, Patrick Mahomes, KC bye week and the Chiefs sites are on nothin’ but the Super Bowl. On the other side Jacksonville is coming off its huge comeback, Trevor Lawrence who is as hot as Mahomes right now and a Super Bowl winning coach in Doug Pederson. Who prevails?
As of right now, the Circa Sports number on this game is Kansas City Chiefs -9. The spread in the 1st meeting was Chiefs -9.5. My number here is Chiefs -10. I feel that KC will be locked in and have their way with the Jags like they did earlier in the season. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are hot but so are the Chiefs. The main difference is: Jags are coming off a wild comeback at home and the Chiefs are coming off a much needed bye. It’s time for the Grim Reaper to take back what is his. Chiefs -9.
New York Giants (+8) vs. Philadelphia Eagles; total 48; 7:15pm ct
Alright, this is a tough game. The last matchup of the season the Giants benched all of its important starters. Philly started Jalen Hurts to knock off some rust and the Eagles won 22-16. In the first matchup the Eagles demolished the Giants in MetLife Stadium 48-22. Last week, the Giants may have played their best game of the season defeating the Vikings on the road 31-24. Daniel Jones had 17 carries for 78 yards and thew for 301 yards and 2 TDs. A great performance except it was against the NFL’s 30th best pass defense. The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense is ranked #1 in the NFL.
Yes, Daniel Jones had an amazing performance last week. He also got roughed up the entire game. Jones thrives on the road. The Giants are 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games. Now he is going against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Will he be able to move the ball easily like he did last week? The Eagles have been resting while the Giants left it all on the field for that Wild Card win. Daniel Jones wasn’t the only one that sliced up a defense. Kirk Cousins also did a number to the Giants defense. Vikings just had questionable play calling from its rookie head coach. Live and learn.
Jalen Hurts sat out for two games and then played the season finale to get back in a groove before the playoffs. Plus, there was still the possibility of the Eagles losing the #1 overall NFC seed. Hurts didn’t have a good game. He threw an interception and finished with a Quarterback Rating of 23.1. For reference, Davis Webb the Giants backup QB finished with a QBR of 73.9. That begs the question: will we see Jalen Hurts from pre-injury or will we have a rusty Hurts in Lincoln Financial Field?
Like I said, this is a tough handicap especially with a spread of 8 for division rivals. Giants play hard and could easily backdoor this game. The uncertainty of Jalen Hurts and tackle Lane Johnson would give one pause before running to the window to bet the Eagles. Daniel Jones is great and proven on the road but I don’t like how he got beat up last week. How will he do against the #1 Philly pass defense? Saquon Barkley only had 9 touches against the Vikings. He was running as good as I’ve ever seen him when he was catching passes out of the backfield. He’ll need to pack a lunch and bring a lantern tomorrow because it’s gonna be a long day for ‘um. The Giants keep games close in Philly going 4-1 ATS the last 5 at Lincoln Financial Field. I was unsure of which side I was going to land on in this game until just now. I’ll take the points in a division rivalry game trusting Daniel Jones and his success on the road. The Jalen Hurts and Lane Johnson uncertainty is too much for me. Giants Head Coach Brian Daboll will have the Giants ready. I think Saquon will give Daniel Jones help to get our G-Men +8 to cash.
