2025 College Football Futures Portfolio
Photo Credit: Toledo Blade
Regular Season Win Totals
Colorado U 7.5 -172 at FanDuel January 13th
This number is now at 5.5 slightly shaded to the over
Explanation: There was probably too much love for Deion and the Buffaloes at this time in the market. Not many teams had their win totals released at this point, but Colorado did (so did Belichick’s Tar Heels, of course). I didn’t think the floor was all that high the previous two years, and I knew the ceiling would be much lower without their top players, who I knew were all going to be drafted. I expect that low floor will show itself more this season. I thought the market was a little off placing Colorado’s win total at 7.5. I thought it was at least a full win too high. It quickly lowered to 6.5 and stayed there for a long time. The Colorado fade train didn’t stop there, as many began betting under 6.5 wins for the Buffaloes over the spring and early parts of the summer. The number is now 5.5. You can imagine I feel pretty good about this one. Apologies to the @cfegrind community for not posting this one.
Clemson O 9.5 +130 at BetMGM February 2nd
This number is still 9.5 but heavily juiced to the over at -230
Explanation: Y’all have heard me say this the entire 2025 calendar year: this is a wide-open year. Lots of the top teams have a lot of production to replace. But Clemson, unlike practically every other upper-echelon team, returns a ton. In fact, the Tigers return the most production in the country. Clemson was the youngest team in the country last year. Room for growth, right? On top of that, the Tigers will be favored in every regular-season game, and most of them by double digits. The home opener against LSU, as well as road games against Georgia Tech, Louisville, and South Carolina, will likely be the most difficult games. The way I looked at this future earlier this year was this: I viewed Clemson as a national title contender for this season. And a natty contender with this schedule shouldn’t go 9-3. I thought this was shaded the wrong direction when I bet this. It’s now heavily juiced over, so the market has corrected here. This isn’t something I’d touch now. Think about the market movement here: +130 to now -230! The non-conference games against the SEC will likely determine whether or not I sweat this out. There’s a chance, though, that I’m not even stressing this.
Kentucky U 5.5 -180 DraftKings February 26th
This number is now 4.5 with -110 odds both to the over and under
Explanation: Along with the Clemson future, this was one of the first two I shared on @cfegrind way back in February. Programs like Kentucky in this era (and with its strength of schedule) should not be priced where they opened. I made this argument last year about another Wildcat team in Northwestern. I took under 5.5 for NW last year, and they closed at 4.5 before the 2024 season kicked off, and they still hit the under, finishing 4-8. NW is now listed at 3.5 for this year. Kentucky might be the next program trending this way. It’s a different era now. Programs like South Carolina, Florida, and Auburn, that used to be at the same level (if not worse there for a handful of years), are in a much better situation financially. Even these previous “mid-tier” SEC programs all look at Kentucky as more of a “gimme.” On top of this, I’m very low on the Wildcats’ roster this year. They had some legit individual talent last year that has since transferred out (the schools that picked up these guys are happy too, so not good for Kentucky). Kentucky attempted to rebuild through the portal. Portal talent isn’t what it once was, as more programs are paying up to keep their best players (something Kentucky can’t afford to do). The vibes are also not good at all right now. Kentucky is now listed at 4.5 and juiced under even at that number now. I’ve got a couple more futures on Kentucky later on in this article.
Syracuse U 5.5 -110 FanDuel April 15th
This number is still 5.5 but heavily juiced to the under at -188
Explanation: Syracuse is in a flat-out rebuilding season. On top of that, the Orange face one of the most difficult schedules in the country. One probably would’ve questioned why the win total opened so low for a team coming off a ten-win season, right? If you see a “funky” number and price, consider going against what common thought would be. It’s not too often we get teams that are on completely different ends of roster experience and schedule difficulty in back-to-back years, but that’s the case for Syracuse. The Orange go from having a veteran team with the ACC’s most manageable schedule in 2024 to a young team facing the ACC’s most difficult schedule. On top of that, Syracuse was awesome in one-score games last year, going 7-2, so the arrows would be trending down anyway. If Syracuse were to simulate the 2024 season again, they would likely be a 7-5 team. Now, flash forward to the circumstances for this season: a young roster with a difficult schedule, and the ceiling is very limited, and the floor is very low—even if the Orange were to pull off an upset. It wouldn’t surprise me if Syracuse goes from having a 9-3 regular-season record to a 3-9 season this year. The ceiling? Even if Syracuse pulls off an unexpected win or two, I think the ceiling is 7-5. I’m ultimately expecting a 4-8 or 5-7 season. I think the win total should be at 4.5. The movement in the market agrees with my thinking here. I’ve been seeing a lot of people in the last few weeks take the under on Syracuse, despite still having to lay juice. If you got on it when I first recommended this on @cfegrind back in the spring, then you got a really good price.
Southern Miss O 4.5 -130 DraftKings May 27th
This number is now at 5.5 slightly shaded to the under
Explanation: This is my official “sicko-mode” play for the 2025 season that I posted on @cfegrind a few months ago. The Golden Eagles are basically the Southern Miss Thundering Herd this year. The Marshall squad that just won the Sun Belt last year is now in Hattiesburg. Charles Huff brings a lot of his coaching staff with him as well. I think 4.5 is an absolute steal. I’d still play the over where it is now at 5.5. The roster talent and coaching staff are both big upgrades. Not a real big talent gap in the G5, so there’s a lot of upward mobility here. Watch out for Southern Miss this season. The Golden Eagles could finish with the nation’s biggest win-total improvement (coming off a 1-win season).
Marshall U 5.5 -115 DraftKings June 14th
This number is now at 4.5 juiced over
Explanation: This one reflects off of the previous future. While Southern Miss portals in a ton of talent, Marshall’s roster is now depleted. If the steepest regression this year isn’t Syracuse, then it could be Marshall. The Thundering Herd may not just be in a rebuilding season. It might be a year-zero situation.
Washington O 7.5 +120 Bet365 June 22nd
This number is still at 7.5 but even money now to the over
Explanation: Here’s what you need to know about this year’s Huskies: skill position & home schedule. On offense, quarterback Demond Williams Jr., RB Jonah Coleman, and WR Denzel Boston are studs. Some of the top individuals in the country at their respective positions. Defensively, I don’t think they’re great from a body type standpoint, especially up front. But, again, skill position! I really like the secondary. Specifically, the corner tandem of future NFLers in Ephesians Prysock and Arizona transfer, Tacario Davis. In regard to the home schedule, Washington is currently on the nation’s second-longest home winning streak, having won 20 straight at Husky Stadium. Why is this noteworthy for this year? Washington hosts three of its four most difficult opponents in Ohio State, Oregon, and Illinois. I love the upside for the Huskies and these home games. Will Washington win consistently away from home this year? They did not win a single road game last year. That being said, the road schedule this season is much more manageable. If they play better on the road this year, I think Washington could hammer the over.
Toledo O 8.5 -115 DraftKings July 16th
Toledo 10+ regular season wins +210
The only price here that’s changed is the price to the over which is now at -140. More positive steam once again!
Explanation: This is the first time I’ve ever bet on a MAC team. Had you made me guess a handful of years ago which team I would first be betting on in this conference, I would’ve guessed Toledo. Why? Because they are practically always the most talented team in the MAC. The problem with the Rockets is that they almost always underachieve. Since 2016, Toledo has lost more games as a favorite than every other team in the country except one: Miami—a team that pretty much everyone has categorized as one of those that get the “least out of the most.” But I feel this year could be different for Toledo in terms of not underachieving. First, it’s a veteran team that did not lose any important players through the transfer portal. The Rockets were one of only a few talented G5 teams in the country that were not poached. I would argue Toledo has the best skill position talent overall in all the G5 this year. Toledo is likely to be a favorite in at least 10, if not 11, games this regular season. The only game Toledo will be an underdog in is week one in Lexington against the Kentucky Wildcats. And that’s a game that I think Toledo can pull off. In fact, I have a future on that game as well. Let that be the transition to the next section of my preseason CFB futures portfolio: Game of the Year Lines.
Game of the YEar Lines
Toledo +11.5 at Kentucky & Toledo ML +315 FanDuel June 16th
Toledo is now +8.5 & +250 on the ML
Explanation: Tremendous positive steam here! I still think this is playable! I love Toledo’s chances of winning outright in Lexington!
Penn State -3.5 vs Oregon BetMGM July 16th
Penn State is now -4.5 at BetMGM
Explanation: While Penn State is only -4.5 at BetMGM, they are currently priced at -6.5 at a lot of other places. Positive team once again, and I think this is still very playable as well! I think Penn State is going to send a message to the country in this game. I also have some questions in regard to Oregon’s ceiling, especially early on in the season.
Conference Win Totals
Kentucky U 2.5 SEC wins -165 DraftKings June 20th
This is still at 2.5 but now juiced at -200
Explanation: I think Kentucky should be at 1.5 SEC wins straight-up. I think this is a win too high. I did not make a video for this because the price changed pretty much right after I had made a play on this. I tried searching for it at other places and couldn’t find Kentucky’s conference wins. I said at the beginning of the article that most of these futures I did make videos for, but I did not make a video for this one. Apologies to the @cfegrind community, but there was just too much volatility in the market with this future, so I did not think it was worth making a video for. Fading Kentucky in the overall regular season wins was definitely worth making a video for, even though it was juiced.
Marshall U 3.5 Sun Belt wins -130 DraftKings July 17th
This is still at 3.5 but juiced now -170
Explanation: Similar to Kentucky’s SEC win total, I think Marshall’s Sun Belt win total is a full win off. I’m on the Marshall fade train this year. I did not make a video for this, but I did post a story about this on my college football Instagram page.
Louisiana Tech O 4.5 CUSA wins +120
This is my most recent future, so it’s still listed at the same price
Explanation: Louisiana Tech went 4-4 in CUSA play last year. All four of the Bulldogs’ conference losses were by one possession, including two in overtime, with one of the OT losses to eventual 2024 CUSA champion, Jacksonville State—which needed a Hail Mary to even send it to OT.This was the best defense in CUSA last year, finishing top 15 nationally in total defense. The defensive line does have a lot to replace, but the linebackers and secondary could be the best in CUSA for this season. Offensively, Louisiana Tech was an overall younger group last year and now returns a now-seasoned sophomore QB in Evan Bullock. The RB room is one of the better ones in CUSA, starting with Omiri Wiggins. The receiver room is the deepest it has been under this coaching regime, and I think TE Eli Finley could be first-team All-CUSA this fall.The CUSA schedule provides opportunity to improve the record. Playing all three of the newest members in Kennesaw State (2nd year in CUSA), as well as 2025 newbies Delaware & Missouri State (all on the road—good road games to have), provides the chance of both a higher floor and ceiling. The toughest road game will be at UTEP—a team that this LA Tech coaching staff is 3-0 against. The home schedule is awesome, as the Bulldogs host conference favorites Liberty and Western Kentucky, as well as SHSU. I should note that Louisiana Tech beat WKU last year at WKU. Louisiana Tech was already really competitive last year and, by a play-by-play standpoint, was one of the better teams in the conference in 2024. Perhaps some of those close losses are now flipped into wins? If so, this team has a high ceiling in CUSA play for 2025.There are some real difference-makers on this roster, including two of my favorite G5 defensive players in potential future NFLer, LB Kolbe Fields, and CB Cedric Woods. About 60% of last year’s roster returns, including the majority of the top veteran players from last year. That level of retention is not extremely common nowadays for most G5 teams. It would not shock me to see this team break through. 2025 predictions for Louisiana Tech throughout the media have been very polarizing, but I like this squad.
Conference Titles Futures
Southern Miss +2700 to win the Sun Belt FanDuel June 3rd
This is now +2000
Explanation: There’s not a huge talent gap anymore in the G5, so you can have teams go from worst to first if they upgrade in the coaching department and have a really good transfer portal haul. Well, Southern Miss fits the billing of a team that has a ton of upward mobility this year. This is part of that sicko-mode play regarding USM.
UTSA +600 to win the American DraftKings June 10th
This is now +450
Explanation: I think UTSA could end up being the best team in the American this year. When I first saw these odds, I thought they were priced incorrectly because my thinking was that UTSA was, at the very least, live to win the American. This original pricing suggests that they were in tier 2 of the American, but that’s not the case. This is priced more accordingly now. UTSA was playing very well down the stretch last year and returns what could be the best overall offense (which returns all 11 starters) in the entire G5 landscape.
College Football Playoff
Washington +1040 to make CFP FanDuel July 2nd
This is now +920
Explanation: As you read previously with my win total future on the Huskies, I’m all in on Washington this year. The skill position talent has to stay healthy because this is not an incredibly deep team, but a handful of their top individuals, I do feel, are some of the best skill players in the country. So, I’m banking (pun intended) on the upside and the price. Although the price has moved a little bit, I still think this is very playable. This is a good CFP long shot.
Team Specials: Home Wins
Texas Tech O 5.5 home wins -165 DraftKings August 8th
Still same price
Explanation: Is this me buying the Texas Tech hype? Eh… it has more to do with Texas Tech’s home opponents. Texas Tech has been known for a few things over the last decade plus. Great offense and questionable defense, quarterback injuries, and… being a really good home team while not performing well on the road. There has been a lot of money coming in on the over for Texas Tech regarding their overall regular season wins, so I’m not going to touch that. I’m just going to focus on the games played in Lubbock this season.
-Arkansas-Pine Bluff
-Kent State
-Oregon State
-Kansas
-Oklahoma State
-BYU
-UCF
Texas Tech will be a double-digit favorite in at least five of its seven home games. And when I say double-digit favorite, I mean 17+ point favorite in at least three of these games and potentially up to five.The Red Raiders should cruise in the non-conference slate. So, let’s look at their four home games in Big 12 play. Oklahoma State and UCF are projected towards the bottom of the Big 12. Now, I know what you’re thinking. It’s the conference of chaos, so just because a team is projected towards the bottom does not mean they’re going to struggle (hello, Arizona State just last year). I 100% get that argument. But I think we are more likely to have a top and bottom tier in the Big 12 this year.Both Oklahoma State and UCF, I believe, will finish towards the bottom of the conference, so this future will most likely come down to games against BYU and Kansas. BYU has a lot of questions in the skill position, including at the most important position of all: quarterback. And the Jayhawks? They lost a lot of production from a special senior class from last year. The most noteworthy returnee for KU? Their star quarterback over the last few seasons, Jalon Daniels. Need I remind you that Daniels struggles to stay healthy?One would really have to squint to find a loss among these seven teams. And even then, we can still afford a loss here. Basically, all of Texas Tech’s toughest games this year are away from home—so miss me with Texas Tech’s overall regular season win total. The most consistent thing that all CFB fans have come to know about Texas Tech in their lifetime is that playing in Lubbock, Texas is not easy. And I think that might show itself even more in the win column for the Red Raiders in Lubbock this year.
Perhaps the Red Raiders accomplish something that hasn’t been done in Lubbock since 2008: finish undefeated at home.