2023 NCAAF National Championship Preview

The National Championship stage is set:

Defending Champion Georgia Bulldogs face the TCU Horned Frogs in the City of Angels.

David vs. Goliath? Texas vs. Georgia? Big 12 vs. SEC? Whichever story you’d like to pin on this game there is no doubt we should be in for a treat. Last year Georgia had one of the most dominant defenses in recent memory winning the National Championship against Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide. A team filled with players that have already made impacts on NFL rosters this season. On the other hand, TCU last year fired its founding father Gary Patterson who brought the Horned Frogs from obscurity to a household name in the Big 12. Georgia reloaded, had a great season and have yet to lose. TCU snagged Sonny Dykes from neighboring SMU and were in a handful of close games this season only losing to K-State in the Big 12 Championship. Tonight we can only crown one National Champion - the last team standing.

Now let’s break this game down:

QB Stetson Bennett vs. QB Max Duggan

Bennett was 23/34 398 yards, 3 TD 1 INT w/ a 75 QBR. He was panicked and had happy feet in the pocket against Ohio State but saved the day on the last drive of the game. With about 8:50 left in the 4Q when the Bulldogs’ backs were up against the wall he found the breakdown in coverage and found Arian Smith wide open for a 76 yard TD, a 1 play drive. It was when Bennett got the ball back he was calm in the pocket, stepping up and throwing absolute dimes to his WRs. It was a site to see. The TCU defense is susceptible to big plays and this is where Bennett, if given enough time, can make the Frogs pay. Frogs need to get a pass rush on Bennett because he does have success against 5 DB sets - TCU runs a 3-3-5 (3 down lineman, 3 linebackers, 5 defensive backs).

Max Duggan was 14/29 225 yards, 2 TD 2 INT w/ a 75.7 QBR. This was not Duggan’s best game but he made the plays when he needed them. One thing that I noticed during the Michigan game was Duggan was able to avoid the pass rush and scramble around. He also made some big runs and had 15 carriers for 57 yards. Throughout the season he had a tendency to stand in the pocket like a statue and take sacks. If he gets into a rhythm with his WRs, Duggan can settle in like CJ Stroud did. Stroud for Ohio State had a field day against Georgia and had 34 yards rushing. Another statistic that is huge is the TCU offense was 8/16 on 3rd down - great %.

Bulldogs HB stable vs. HB Keandre Miller / Emari Demercado

The Georgia Bulldogs use multiple running backs allowing defensive lines no rest. Ohio State was dominated by the Bulldogs running game in the 1st half but because Georgia needed to play catch up - they got away from the running game. They still could and should have ran more but didn’t. To me, this was terrible. If the game is forced on Stetson Bennett’s shoulders, I’m not too sure he can handle all that weight again. Bulldogs need to Run the Damn Ball! How will TCU fair running its 3-3-5? We have to wait and see!

Keandre Miller had 8 carries for 57 yards before having his knee twisted up in an odd way and exiting the game. As of right now Miller’s status is questionable. Have no fear - Demercado is here! Emari Demercado came in for Miller and made his presence known. He finished with 17 carriers 150 yards and 1 fumble. TCU is in good hands, if Miller is back that will only help. The Horned Frogs need the running game going to set up play action and to give Duggan some help. An SEC defensive front is up next.

Georgia WR/TE vs. TCU WR/TE

Georgia has some great skill position players on the outside that start with TE Brock Bowers who leads the team in receptions, yards and TDs. 2nd in all categories is WR Ladd McConkey who was slowed down in the semi-finals with 2 receptions for -1 yards. The Michigan WRs had huge games against TCU so it will be interesting to see if the Bulldogs go pass heavy or run heavy to set up the pass. TCU got burned over the top one too many times against the Wolverines so they could be vulnerable again.

TCU has a star WR in Quentin Johnston who will be playing on Sundays as a 1st round draft pick. He headlines the Horned Frogs WR room. They also have Taye Barber and Derius Davis that can cause some problems for the Bulldogs. Georgia had a massive problem with Marvin Harrison Jr. until he was injured for the game. Again, if Duggan gets into a groove with his WRs they can give the Georgia defense problems but will he have enough time to get them the ball? CJ Stroud used his legs and took long drop backs to give himself and his WRs time - TCU will need to do the same.

Georgia defense vs. TCU defense

For starters the Georgia defense has some NFL players , which is no surprise. Jalen Carter on the inside and Kelee Ringo on the outside. What was apparent during the Ohio State game was the UGA defense struggled mightily against Ohio States tempo, crossing patterns and speed. Georgia will need to get a pass rush on Max Duggan - Michigan only tallied 1 sack. The DBs struggled with star Marvin Harrison Jr. and TCU will look to do the same with WR Quentin Johnston. If the TCU offense gets comfortable and goes no huddle with success - UGA is in trouble. As highlighted earlier, TCU was 8/16 on 3rd down. If they have that success or better TCU will be very much in this game.

Yes, Georgia has NFL talent across the board but TCU has its Captain Dee Winters who looked like Brian Dawkins against Michigan. Every time there was a big play, who was there? Dee Winters. Tackle for a loss? Dee Winters. I expect more of the same from him tonight. TCU had 2 INT and 4 sacks against Michigan. If they can rattle Stetson Bennett early that will be huge for TCU. Senior defensive lineman Dylan Horton had 4 sacks vs. Michigan. Look for him to hunt down Stetson Bennett. The Horned Frogs also held Michigan to 3/13 on 3rd down and 0/2 on 4th down - it was the difference for TCU. Georgia also struggled on 3rd down going 2/10. 3rd down is going to be a major factor in this game and whichever team has the most success will win.

Georgia -13.5 vs. TCU; Total 63 Betting Perspective

Georgia was a 7 point favorite vs. Ohio State on a “neutral field” (Atlanta), -17.5 favorite on a “neutral field” (Atlanta) vs. an injured LSU and -9.5 point favorites at home against Tennessee. Michigan destroyed Ohio State as +7 underdogs on the road. The same team that TCU just handled business against. The number of 13.5 is disrespectful to TCU not only to its offensive ability but to the defense. Sonny Dykes is an experienced head coach with the best team he has ever had. Will Max Duggan be a star in the NFL? Probably not. Will a large amount of the other TCU players play on Sundays? Yes. TCU has products from the great state of Texas all over the field. Georgia comes in to this game as a large favorite but I believe this number should be around 7 and no higher than 10. You can call this TCU outfit “lucky” and say they don’t deserve to be in the National Championship except they are here, buddy. They made it by playing with grit during adversity, stars from the great state of Texas and staying mentally tough when other teams couldn’t (Kansas, OSU, Tech, Texas, Kansas State [1st game] and Michigan). TCU won’t sneak up on Georgia the way they did to Michigan but I think Sonny Dykes takes the game straight to Georgia. The Horned Frogs will go out on their swords leaving every thing they have on the field. If that TCU defense plays tough against the run and covers deep - watch out. If TCU can play at a fast tempo they will give that Bulldog defense fits with their speed the way Ohio State did. I believe the Horned Frogs win outright. I also like this game to go over for this reason. TCU will jump out first and Georgia will be playing catch up by throwing the ball instead of grinding out the clock with a lead. If you like UGA then I would correlate Bulldogs -13.5 with the under.

We were spoiled with the best College Football Playoff Semi-Finals of all time and I don’t think we will be disappointed tonight with this match up. Georgia vs. TCU for all the marbles in the City of Angels. Can’t wait! Let us know what you think in the comments! Enjoy.