NCAA Tournament Round 1: Thursday

Mar 21

We’ll be handicapping every NCAA Tournament game to help everyone this month. We feel it is necessary to give y’all as much information as possible to be successful during March Madness. There are hundreds of ways to gamble on the tournament or fill out your bracket so that’s why we will try to get you everything you need. We went 57% last year with riding UConn winning the National Championship. BUT THAT WAS LAST YEAR! Time to move! Let’s go!

College Basketball Season Record: 239-240-13 — Betting 1 Unit to Win X
NCAA Tournament Record (2-1)

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11:20am cst: Michigan State Spartans -1 vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs; Total 130.5

What a great matchup to tip off March Madness! We also get one hell of a coaching matchup between Tom Izzo and Chris Jans. This is definitely a game of experience vs. inexperience. This Michigan State team made an unexpected run last season and may be poised for another. The Spartans are flying under the radar, while the Mississippi State Bulldogs should have plenty of confidence after a strong SEC campaign. Chris Jans, known as “The Dentist,” and his Bulldogs play a tough, physical style of defense. Not only that, but they also have tough guard play. The Spartans play a bit of defense themselves, actually ranking higher than the Bulldogs. Where the Bulldogs can get an edge is in the rebounding battle, where they rank in the top 50 in the country. Their problem is that they have a bad habit of turning over the ball. The Spartans have the advantage beyond the 3PT line, and their veteran guards do not turn the ball over. I also think Tom Izzo will kick his game up a notch. When his team comes into the tournament with zero expectations, as quiet as a field mouse, that’s when he does his best work. I’m backing Izzo and the Spartans’ veteran guard play. They will need to rebound the basketball and capitalize on turnovers.

Pick: Michigan State -1 (-112) [via DraftKings]

11:45am cst: Duquesne Dukes vs. BYU Cougars -10; Total 142

This might be one of the most underrated games of the first round. Duquesne is one of the Cinderella stories coming into the tournament, having played and won every game in the A-10 tournament, which is no easy feat. Keith Dambrot, the head coach of Duquesne, is an excellent coach, especially when it comes to defense. I was impressed with them after their improbable comeback against Loyola-Chicago, which was all due to coaching and heart. This is considered his “Last Dance” as he will be retiring to focus on his wife, who has been battling breast cancer. Duquesne plays with the same passion as its coach. We know BYU loves to shoot the three, and I mean LOVES to shoot it from deep. The thing is, their best player, Aly Khalifa, is apparently injured. We don’t and won’t know how serious it is until tomorrow. He’s played limited minutes in the last few games. I do not like teams that live and die by the three, and that’s what BYU does. Don’t get me wrong, they can stroke it, but they don’t really have an alternative to rely on if the three isn’t falling. In the NCAA Tournament, sometimes you have to get a little creative and throw some darts. That’s what I plan on doing with this Duquesne team. They have the story, the coaching, and defense to keep this game close. If BYU makes 10+ threes at 50%, they might roll, but getting 9.5 to 10 points, I think we will see some extra effort on defense for Coach Dambrot’s Last Ride.

Pick: Duquesne +10 (-110) [via DraftKings]

12:30pm cst: Akron Zips vs. Creighton Blue Jays -12; Total 141

Akron has been getting some respect as a team that made it to the NCAA Tournament, thanks to a mental lapse from Kent State. Creighton had a down game against Providence in the Big East tournament, but prior to that, they were playing hotter than any team in the country. This Blue Jays team is now rested and ready to go. Akron has decent defensive metrics, but they haven’t faced an offense like Creighton’s before. My issue with Akron is that they don’t shoot the three very well and they don’t rebound. These are two things that are a must against Creighton. In my opinion, this is a short number for a rested Blue Jays side that is ready to run and gun.

Pick: Creighton -12 (-110) [via DraftKings]

1:00pm cst: Long Beach State Beach vs. Arizona Wildcats -20; Total 163.5

We know the storylines in this one. We have Arizona and head coach Tommy Lloyd, who are starting to develop a reputation for not getting out of the first weekend. On the other hand, we have LBSU head coach Dan Monson, who was fired a couple of weeks ago but has since won the Big West, punching a ticket to the Big Dance and earning a date with the Arizona Wildcats. History says to take the 20+ points with Long Beach State. One should also be mindful that a team, after being embarrassed a year ago, might come out hot. Arizona will have a size advantage against most teams, but they tend to struggle in the toughness department. The Beach has the Traore brothers, who measure in at 6’10”, and Amari Stroud, who is also 6’10”, with some decent guard size. I think Long Beach can be pesky enough to give Arizona a run for its money. Don’t you think Coach Monson would love to give the AD a big “Fuck You” on his way out. As Bruce Lee once said, “It is the man that has nothing to lose or is willing to lose everything to beat you that I am afraid of”. Go Beach.

Pick: Long Beach State +20 (-110) [via DraftKings]

1:50pm cst: Wagner Seahawks vs. North Carolina Tar Heels -25; Total 133.5

We faded Wagner based on their offensive metrics. They had the 30 best minutes of their life offensively. Yes, we had a ticket on Howard, and it almost cashed somehow. I don’t see them having the same type of offensive game. North Carolina is rested, and they can not only score but are also a great defensive team. Howard was a bottom-third defensive team, while Carolina is in the top 25. I like North Carolina to roll in this game. We’re fading the Wagner offense that struggled when they were pressured. The Tar Heels will not be making the same mistakes as Howard.

Pick: North Carolina -25 (-112) [via DraftKings]

2:00pm cst: Morehead State Eagles vs. Illinois Fighting Illini -11.5; Total 146.5

Morehead State is coming into this game as what feels like a trendy underdog. Illinois has great size and length, with plenty of veteran leadership led by Marcus Domask and Terrance Shannon Jr. The Eagles are definitely going to play with some fight. They always do. Illinois will be laying double digits here, but I really like the Fighting Illini’s size and all-around scoring capabilities. Illinois is the fourth-best rebounding team in the country, and that is what I really like. I’m laying the points.

Pick: Illinois -11.5 (-110) [via DraftKings]

3:00pm cst: Oregon Ducks -1 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks; Total 133.5

I cannot wait for this game! This is as evenly matched a game as I can think of. Both of these teams rate very similarly in every meaningful category. Oregon is healthy and has picked up momentum after winning the Pac 12 Tournament. South Carolina has been a great road team all season, with great guard play. The Gamecocks are also great free-throw shooters. One of my favorite coaches, Dana Altman, is in the upper echelon when it comes to coaching in March. He just gets the job done and then some. That is where I am choosing my side in this coin-flip game. I like the Oregon guard play, as well as big Dante in the paint. Experience will play a factor, but this is about as 50/50 as we will get.

Pick: Oregon -1 (-108) [via DraftKings]

3:30pm cst: Nevada Wolf Pack -1 vs. Dayton Flyers; Total 136.5

Dayton was kind of a front-runner, in my opinion. They were very strong at the beginning of the season but tapered off towards the end of the year. As a team that was considered a top team all season, they finished in third place in the Atlantic 10 behind two teams that did not make the tournament: Richmond and Loyola-Chicago. Nevada has been red-hot over the past month, with their only loss coming to Colorado State in the Mountain West tournament. Nevada can shoot the three, rebound, and play tough defense. The Flyers’ strength is their offense. If Nevada can keep them off the three-point line, they will have success. The Wolf Pack was also a great away team, unlike Dayton.

Pick: Nevada -1 (-112) [via DraftKings]

5:50pm cst: Colorado State Rams vs. Texas Longhorns -2.5; Total 144

I have watched these two teams play all season. If this turns into a track meet, the Texas Longhorns will need to keep CSU off the three-point line. Colorado played a very patient game against Virginia and dominated. We still don’t know what we will get from the Rams because of the poor effort from Virginia. Texas is rested, with a hard-nosed veteran team ready for redemption from last season. I will say that I did not expect the performance Texas displayed last season. Yes, it was a different team, but Rodney Terry and Company will have this team ready to bring the energy on the defensive side of the ball. When Texas turns their defense into offense, they are hard to beat. Whichever team makes the stops will win this game. I’m backing the Texas defense. Keep them off the 3PT line. This one is bouncing from 2.5 to 2 but does not matter to me.

Pick: Texas -2 (-115) [via DraftKings]

6:00pm cst: Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Kentucky Wildcats -13.5; Total 161.5

The Golden Grizzlies will be bringing an offense with them, so expect Oakland to have their shoes laced up in this one. Kentucky also boasts one of, if not the best, offenses in the country, littered with NBA talent. This season isn’t like most at Kentucky. I think this is one of the most talented Kentucky teams since Anthony Davis and UK won the National Championship. Quite frankly, this one probably has more talent. I know Calipari hasn’t put together a tournament run in quite some time, and the way this team doesn’t play defense, I can see how people would back Oakland. For me, I love this Kentucky offense. All they need to do is play that perimeter defense they did at the start of the season. Calipari will need to figure out his rotations as well. I’m backing this Kentucky offense and their defense to make some stops, rather than the Golden Grizzlies keeping up with this Kentucky team. Oakland is not a very good rebounding or three-point shooting team.

Pick: Kentucky -13.5 (-112) [via DraftKings]

6:30pm cst: McNeese Cowboys vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs -7; Total 149.5

It’s about 3:45am CST, and Gonzaga is taking some money. We may see this get to 7.5. Which Zags team is going to show up today? The one that rolled Kentucky and St. Mary’s, or the one that was embarrassed by St. Mary’s in the WCC Championship game? Both of these teams are red-hot, and I expect a shootout. Can McNeese keep pace with the Zags? Do not sleep on this McNeese defense. The Zags have a problem with turning the ball over, and the Cowboys can take advantage of that. McNeese also shoots the three with the best in the Nation. People will dismiss the Cowboys because of their schedule and lack of competition, but come on, Gonzaga plays in the WCC. Gonzaga is no longer the Cinderella showing up to the ball prancing around as the debutante; it’s McNeese’s turn to put the slipper on. I also love a scorned coach like Will Wade, ready to showcase his redemption tour for the country to see. Give me the points with the Cowboys, with some love on the moneyline. Let’s see how tough these teams really are. Prove it.

Pick: McNeese +7 (-108) [via DraftKings]

6:49pm cst: South Dakota State Jack Rabbits vs. Iowa State Cyclones -15.5; Total 135.5

If you think this Jack Rabbits team isn’t going to bring their best game without fear, then you are mistaken. They have a top 20 offense and are going to look to catch this Iowa State team napping after that massive win against Houston in the Big 12 Championship. South Dakota State doesn’t have a great defense, and that will create some issues. Neither team rebounds very well. The Jack Rabbits do have the almighty equalizer in their pocket, and that is the three-point shot. I don’t expect them to lay down, and I would rather take the points in this game, pushing the Cyclones away from their home floor where they struggle. There are some +16’s available. It’s time for Iowa State to prove they are the real deal and not just a show pony in Hilton Coliseum.

Pick: South Dakota State +16 (-115) [via DraftKings]

8:20pm cst: Saint Peter’s Peacocks vs. Tennessee Volunteers -21.5; Total 130

Rick Barnes and his Vols typically do not blow out teams and his ATS record is very well known. This Peacocks team is looking to make some noise with their defense. Teams that have bad offensive metrics have played well in the First Four with both covering the spread. Will this Saint Peter’s defense give Tennessee some trouble? The Peacocks do boast top 10 defensive metrics. Let’s back these Peacocks to see if they can give another SEC school hell in the first round.

Pick: Saint Peter’s +21.5 (-110) [via BetOnline]

8:45pm cst: North Carolina State Wolf Pack vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders -5; Total 145.5

The tale of two stories is in this one. NC State is riding the ultimate high of rising from the dead to win the ACC Tournament and punch their ticket to the Big Dance. Then, you have Texas Tech, who found a groove before being manhandled by Houston but have been battling injuries all season. As of right now, Warren Washington is probable, Darrion Williams is probable, and KyeRon Lipsey is questionable. This is one of the last games of the night, but I have been viewing this game as if everyone is playing for Texas Tech. We just don’t know how healthy and effective they’ll be. The same unknown is if NC State will carry over the momentum from the ACC Tournament. Neither team can rebound very well, but the Wolf Pack has some good size led by DJ Burns. NC State does not turn the ball over and is a phenomenal free-throw shooting team. There are too many health unknowns with Texas Tech. Keep them off the 3PT line and rebound, and NC State will be in a good position to pull off the “upset”. This game will be tight. I can see this getting to 5.5 after injury news comes out, but I’m comfortable with the 5.

Pick: NC State +5 (-110) [via BetOnline]

9:00pm cst: Samford Bulldogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks -7.5; total 154

Kansas has so many issues right now. They are like a sinking ship. Their senior leader and one of their best players, Kevin McCullers, is OUT. We do not know how healthy Hunter Dickinson is. Johnny Furphy hasn’t shown anything in a while, and they have absolutely no bench. Samford smells blood in the water. This Samford team has one of the best offenses in the country, especially when shooting beyond the arc. They are going to run and gun and try to push this Kansas team into submission. Kansas does not have the athletes to run with Samford. KJ Adams will be working overtime, but the Jayhawks will need to show up with some heart, something they have not done in the last two games when things hit the fan. This is an upset special for me. Points and the ML.

Pick: Samford +7.5 (-112) [via DraftKings]

9:00pm cst: Drake Bulldogs -1 vs. Washington State Cougars; Total 137.5

Now, for the main event of the night, we should be in for a treat. This Drake team will be locked in and ready to play. Last year, they felt cheated after losing a very close game to the eventual Final Four team, the Miami Hurricanes. Drake lost by 7 but took the Hurricanes to the wire. Miami shot 29 free throws to Drake’s 8. Washington State has a strong team. I really like the bigs for Wazzu and their skills in the post as well as their rebounding ability. Washington State’s guards have issues with turning the ball over and playing with confidence. They have some talent, but freshman Rice has been struggling from deep and cost the Cougars their game against Colorado because of turnovers. The guards also don’t feed the post, even though that is the team’s strength on offense. I do not like what I saw in that game. I like Drake. They will need to rebound the basketball and guard the post. How much do they want it? We’ll find out.

Pick: Drake -1 (-105) [via DraftKings]

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