College Hoops Saturday

Kevin Obanor and the mighty Red Raiders of Texas Tech play host to the TCU Horned Frogs as they fight for their NCAA Tournament lives.

We had a rough couple days on Wednesday and Thursday going against some teams that shot season highs in 3PT. I chalk it up to very minimal regression that we were due for after running so hot. Today we bounce back like we always do with huge Saturday. On the season we are (113-108-3) 51% so let’s keep it up and finish out February strong before March. Let’s get after it!

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UCONN Huskies vs. St. John’s Red Storm (+7.5); total 152; 11:00am ct

Here’s Johnny! Mike Anderson and his Red Storm are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. I can still see a path to where the Johnnies steal a bid but they would 100% have to win this game. UCONN is higher than Spicoli in his 3rd period math class. UCONN has some great resume building wins at home but now they must travel and face a St. John’s team that they struggle mightily against. Mike Anderson’s game is 40 minutes of hell and UCONN’s weakness is turnovers. If the Johnnies force more turnover than they commit, St. John’s will win this game and definitely keep this one close. Way too many points for a bad road team to be laying - the game will be played in Madison Square Garden.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (-2); total 144.5; 11:00pm ct

The Texas Tech mighty Red Raiders are one of the hottest teams in the country and they’ve earned every bit of it. The great Mark Adams has got his team playing great defense that is creating its offense. He’s using his young players that have been rising to the occasion behind veteran’s like Kevin Obanor from Houston, TX and De’Vion Harmon from Denton, TX. This is a team nobody in the country wants to step in front of especially in Lubbock, TX where I expect a rowdy crowd. TT feeds off of hope and being the underdog like its oxygen. TCU played what I would describe as an embarrassing game at home against Kansas. KU didn’t play a perfect game but took advantage of TCU’s lazy offense and lack of passing. The TCU offense was extremely stagnant and only ran iso’s to try and get Mike Miles open. Don’t get me wrong this Horned Frogs team is good but I don’t like what I see offensively. Texas Tech needs to limits its turnovers and I expect an easy win if they can do that.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (-5.5); total 144.5; 11:00am ct

This one is pretty simple and I would like to credit our unofficial Michigan State resource, Spartan Annie on this: Iowa’s 3 point shooting is significantly better at home than on the road (38.4%/27.7%) but MSU’s 3PT defense also drops off on the road (35.8% on the road vs 23.6% at home). Iowa has only made three 3PTs in its last two games, which is scary for an Iowa team. Now they are at home with MSU coming off two HUGE emotional games against Michigan & a massive home win against Indiana. I smell a no show for the Spartans. MSU is already a dicey road team. This number should be Iowa -8. Give me the Hawkeyes.

Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears (-3.5); total 148.5; 1:00pm ct

The million dollar question every week: Will the UT offense show up and will they show up on the road? Normally the answer on the road is an emphatic “no”. This is a disrespectful number for Baylor. The Bears dropped back to back road games against Kansas and K-State but now are back home where they have had plenty of success against UT. I’ve been watching Big 12 basketball long enough to know the number here should be 5/6. Keyonte George is a top 5 NBA draft pick that gets no love for some odd reason. When you watch him play he looks like an NBA wing that could play right now on any team. I love the history here, fading the UT sporadic offense and Baylor on a two loss bounce back. This season has been a HUGE success for UT. Texas is tied for 1st place in the Big 12 with Kansas … the Jayhawks have a minimum of 5 NBA players on that team. Texas doesn’t have 1 in my opinion. But today will not be their day with the Big 12 Championship hanging in the balance.

Kansas State Wildcats (+2.5) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys; total 143; 1:00pm ct

I love Oklahoma State basketball and Gallagher-Iba Arena as much as anyone but this Cowboy team is struggling. OSU misses Avery Anderson III like I miss watching JamesOn Curry suit up for the Cowboys. This team especially the offense cannot function without him and the results reflect that. I’m sure people are betting OSU because they are home and are “due” - nah. I expect this game playing out more like the Kansas vs. OSU game did. The Cowboys and the crowd will come out hot and the team will eventually fizzle. If OSU makes more than 10 3PTs we’ll probably lose but I’m taking the shot here with K-State in a game where they should be favored.

Louisville Cardinals (+5.5) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets; total 138.5; 1:00pm

In what universe should Georgia Tech be laying 5.5 points to anyone much less this Louisville team they loss by 10 to earlier in the year. It’ll be the Yellow Jackets last home game and senior day but should that warrant a 6 point move to the line? No. I really like how Louisville has been playing lately and they will be matched up with a common opponent. Louisville has yet to win a road game but there is definitely a first time for everything. If we lose this nasty do, then we lose but I’m taking a shot here with Louisville where I feel the number is incorrect. If Louisville dominates the glass, which I believe they will then we should have success.

Auburn Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-4); total 142.5; 3:00pm ct

This Kentucky team impressed me with the way they held on and defeated the Florida Gators on the road. They should have played better and were not perfect but in that environment lesser teams would have melted down. Auburn is on the NCAA Tournament tight rope if you ask me. I feel Kentucky goes in for the kill here and this game plays out like its game against Tennessee last week. The number is short because Kentucky guards can be dicey at times but this is a talent mismatch and I like the Wildcats.

Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-3); total 130.5; 5:00pm ct

Do or die. Win or stay home. The season is literally on the line for North Carolina on Saturday. Virginia is coming off a road loss to Boston College where they couldn’t score. The UVA offense is pretty anemic and they always lean on their defense. This Carolina team is desperate. They have this game against UVA, then on the road at Florida State and its final game at home against Duke. I can see UNC winning all three and cementing themselves into the tournament but they NEED this game. 9/10 give me the hungry desperate team especially if they have talent. This game flips North Carolina’s season.

Other highlighted games:

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